Posts
Russian men respond to Putin’s call-up of recruits to replace the casualties of the Ukrainian war – er, sorry, 'special military operation’ - by heading en masse to the borders. Hundreds of thousands rush to escape the draft. These men are workers; middle-managers, I.T. specialists, psychologists, lawyers, accountants, clerks, line-workers, craftsmen and laborers.
According to the New York Times, at least 200,000 have left Russia as of Sept 28th. That number is probably a vast underestimate. In the last four days, the independent Russian newspaper, Novaya Gazeta, reported that 261,000 military-aged men were estimated to have left. Some have committed suicide rather than answer Putin’s call-up. There are reports of Russian men crippling themselves to avoid conscription.
The ones who have left Russia will be joined by wives who are also workers who contribute to the Russian economy, not only as vital employees but as consumers whose purchases are the foundation of the economy.
None of these workers and consumers will be replaced. Draft-aged men (18 to 27 years) will not replace those who have left the work-force. They will be conscripted into the armed forces where, ill-trained, ill-equipped and ill-fed, they will be forced to fight a war for which they have no spirit.
How does the Russian economy react to this upheaval? It can only be detrimental in a monumental way. Coupled with the effects of international sanctions, the COVID pandemic and the dire specter of nuclear Armageddon, Putin and the other Russian oligarchs are staring down the barrel of a gun with their own fingers on the trigger.
A top Russian economist warns in Fortune magazine that the Russian economy will collapse by winter. The Russian economy will go right into the crapper; there is little alternative.
