Putin's Folly

 

Mr Putin’s fundamental folly is that he wanted more than life itself to return to the vainglorious eras of the Russian Empire and the USSR. His folly was two-fold; first, to think that anything of the kind of was remotely possible and second, that a return to the Soviet era would not necessitate the inherent presence of M.A.D. (mutually assured destruction). 

Putin has provided us further evidence of the Dunning-Kruger Effect. Vlad has over-estimated his talents, his resources and has misplayed his hand based on those faulty estimates of his own infallibility and genius. He has committed the age-old caveat about under-estimating your opponent. The invasion of Ukraine has been far more than he bargained for militarily, economically and diplomatically.

He and his sycophantic general staff have botched up their ‘special combat operation’ at ever phase and in every aspect of war: tactics, strategy, logistics and operations.

As example; tactically, the surrounding/investment of Kyiv should have been accomplished in the first few hours of the very first day of the war. The task bogged down from the very git-go; under-supplied and traveling only on roads and highways. (Lessons taught by the Germans ‘Blitzkreig’ were not learned, obviously.)

Strategically, sighting on Kyiv, such an obvious target, and announcing for weeks beforehand that attacking Ukraine and taking Kyiv was the Russian plan was both asinine and amateurish. For the vaunted Russia military - which defeated both Napoleon and Hitler - to bungle so badly is baffling.

Operationally, the Russians left themselves open to the ever-alert monitoring of communication by the Western allies. Generals used unsecured cell-phones which Ukraine and NATO could accurately geo-locate. Ooops. Jam up communications and see how far a modern army gets when they’re deaf and blind.

Logistics seems to have been absent from the curriculum of military colleges in Russia. It was as though the general staff never considered that a modern mechanical operation might need… fuel! WTF? Columns of mobile armor sat motionless for days and weeks for lack of petrol. Fuel was so scarce that soldiers were suffering frost-bite because they couldn’t even run the heaters in their vehicles. Not to mention that they were sitting ducks sitting dead still on the highways.

The old maxim; ‘An army travels on its stomach’ was another lesson Putin was ignorant of. The news is rife with tales of Russian conscripts looting grocery stores sacking the larders of babushkas and mugging citizens for food.

The word ‘cock-up’ does not begin to describe the military bone-headedness of the invasion of Ukraine. Any war-gamer or amateur military historian could do a better job than Putin and his general staff have done. 

Sadly, the military screw-ups are bloody and deadly. The effects of diplomatic isolation and economic strangulation, not so much. However, those less deadly effects will have to be endured for many years by the entire world, not just those on the battlefield of Ukraine.

This is Putin’s legacy: Folly, disaster and calamity.