The Pelosi 'Problem'

 

Nancy Pelosi has Landed! And left…

After her trips to Singapore and Malaysia, Speaker Pelosi landed in Taiwan at the Taoyuan Airport.

 After much hysteria ginned up by the MSM, Pelosi landed thumbing a collective nose at Beijing and President Xi.

After living on this island for more than 30 years, it must be said that the general feeling of the people on Taiwan has been understated at best. All the while that USA MSM was airing clips of military activity, there was little concern.  Xi blustered and bloviated about egregious, drastic action and the people of the Republic of China didn’t even manage a shrug. 

 

Since 1949, Beijing has threatened Taiwan. Taiwan is plenty used to hearing sabers rattling and grimaced alpha-male visages.

That is not to say that there is no threat from the People’s Liberation Army. No. There is always the threat. It’s just that the threat has been so commonplace that, like earthquakes and typhoons, the threat is simply taken as part of the fabric of life. 

 

But let’s look at this with a clear-head. If Xi wants to slit his own throat, he’s capable. He’s capable of bringing to ruin the ‘China Miracle’ of economics. He’s capable of tossing the PRC onto the rubbish heap of international diplomacy. He’s capable of risking and losing blood and treasure in a military escapade. He’s capable. The PRC is capable.

However, what will they gain other than a blasted rock peopled with die-hard insurrectionists? To be honest, Xi has little to gain and everything to lose by attacking Taiwan. 

 

Perhaps first and foremost is $$$! Taiwan is the source of loads – the lion’s share – of investments on the Mainland, second only to the USA. It’s clear; attack Taiwan, threaten Taiwan’s democracy and all financing from the USA, the E.U. the UK, Japan, So. Korea, Canada, Australia, etc, etc will be pulled.

Attack Taiwan and any of the political prestige enjoyed by the PRC will be forfeit. Beijing will be an international sick man once more.

Attack Taiwan and any diplomatic leverage would be undone. One likely response would be the recognition of Taiwan by the UN and other international organizations which have thus far balked under pressure from Beijing.

 A militarily assault would be far more demonstrative in immediate effect. It would be a gruesome, bloody folly. It is close to an impossibility for the PRC to launch a successful amphibious invasion of the island nation. It would be expensive in both blood and treasure. One need only look at the difficulty that the Russians are having in Ukraine and consider that all the Russians had to do all was drive up the road to Kiev! Comparatively, the PRC has 100 miles of ocean – the Taiwan Strait – acting as a deep-water protective moat. 

The US 7th Fleet stand on the ready nearby, as well as the Japanese navy, the So. Korean navy, the Philippine Navy, the UK Navy, the Aussie navy, etc... Not what anyone would call a ‘walk over’.

 

Moreover, should the invasion succeed, sad as that possibility is, Taiwan would be turned into a blasted rock without any commercial value except as volcanic slag. Taiwan is fortified from stem to stern and has been since the early 1950s. Pill-boxes stand at the ready on every hill-top and at every juncture. (Fact; until rather recently a hike in the mountains or a day at the beach required a military ‘hall-pass’ for national security reasons.) Furthermore, should such an all-but-impossible military invasion succeed, any of the remaining population would be a die-hard insurgency that would take a generation to subdue. 

 

Ask the Russians. Ask the Americans re: Iraq or Afghanistan or Vietnam.

 

Much needs be said and done in support of Taiwan. It must be stated that the situation - while superficially comparable to the Russian invasion of Ukraine – has many critical details which are critically different.

In short, unless the PRC wishes to slice its own throat (hint: it doesn't) it will continue to use the ROC as a diplomatic anomaly and its ‘situation’ as a red herring.

 

It has little choice because there is far too much Taiwan money invested in Mainland enterprises. Far too much American, Canadian, Aussie, Japanese and British money to toss in the rubbish.